Tampa Bay in October 2026: 17 Percent Fewer Sales, Prices That Did Not Move
I pulled every October closing in Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas from the MLS, then did the same for October 2025. Fewer homes sold. The medians barely moved. Here is the county by county table and what it means if you are buying or selling this winter.
The four county picture
I pulled the closed residential sales for October 1 to 31, 2026 from Stellar MLS for the four counties that make up the Tampa Bay metro, then pulled October 2025 the same way.
| County | Oct 2026 closings | vs Oct 2025 | Median price | vs Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough | 1,224 | down 22% | $390,975 | flat |
| Pinellas | 1,229 | down 13% | $385,000 | up 1% |
| Pasco | 936 | down 12% | $330,000 | down 2% |
| Hernando | 298 | down 23% | $302,150 | down 4% |
Across the four: about 3,700 closings, roughly 17 percent fewer than a year ago. A few late-entered closings will nudge the 2026 counts up, so treat the drop as an upper bound.
Single-family, by city
Where people actually closed, and the median they paid, single-family homes only:
| City | Closings | Median | Median days to contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa | 411 | $455,000 | 42 |
| St. Petersburg | 254 | $425,500 | 40 |
| Spring Hill | 139 | $315,000 | 36 |
| New Port Richey | 130 | $331,120 | 81 |
| Clearwater | 110 | $417,000 | 22 |
| Wesley Chapel | 106 | $459,250 | 60 |
| Riverview | 97 | $420,000 | 49 |
Seminole homes went under contract in a median 13 days, Brandon 19, Plant City 19. New Port Richey took 81. Where you shop changes how fast you have to move.
What it means
Fewer sales and steady prices is a negotiating market, not a crashing one.
If you are buying: fewer buyers are competing for each house, sellers who need to move are negotiating on price and credits, and inspection periods are real again. Pair that with Amendment 3 (be a Florida resident by December 31 and the bigger homestead exemption is yours in 2027) and this winter is a window, not a wait.
If you are selling: the homes that closed sold at 97 to 99 percent of asking. The ones that sat were priced for 2022. Price from the last 60 days of closings on your street, get the house ready before the first photo, and let the first two weeks work.
Want these numbers for your street instead of the whole bay? Text me your address and I will pull it.
*Source: Stellar MLS, closed residential sales, October 1 to 31, 2026 and 2025, pulled November 1 to 3, 2026. All property types in the county table; single-family only in the city table. Florida REALTORS publishes its own October release later in November; numbers may differ slightly.*
Written by Shebastian Burley
Realtor with CENTURY 21 BE3 / Beggins Enterprises, working Tampa Bay from Pinellas to Hernando. Numbers come from Stellar MLS and the sources named in each post, never from a headline.
